Dealer’s Chances of Busting

I have never met a blackjack player who would not like to know when the dealer will bust. It would make the blackjack so much easier to play in terms of a player’s betting strategy.

Unfortunately it is impossible to know exactly when the blackjack dealer is going to bust. The best we can do is know when the blackjack dealer has a better shot at busting his hand. And it is impossible to know exactly when he will bust, it is possible to know when his chances are higher.

This is kind of like knowing that you have a better shot at winning when the deck is running with high cards.

Anyway we already knew that about our chances of winning. What we want to know is when the dealer is more likely to bust. Below you will find a little list of all the dealer up cards along with the dealer’s chances of busting with those up cards:

2—35%
3—37%
4—40%
5—42%
6—42%
7—26%
8—24%
9—23%
10—23%
Ace—17%

So that being said, we know that the dealer has the biggest chance of busting when he is showing a 5 or 6. What can you do with such knowledge?

You work it into your blackjack strategy—that is what you do!

This does not replace card counting but it can help you somewhat in terms of your playing strategy and betting strategy. If you know the dealer is at his highest chances of busting it can help you to take advantage of the round.

Let’s say you have a hard 10 and the dealer is showing a 5. You know he is at his highest chances of busting, and you know that according to basic strategy you should be doubling down. By knowing that he is at his highest chances of busting it allows you to know that your double down has a better shot of being profitable. And that means that you should be more confident in doubling down.