Blackjack Odds: Being Dealt a Natural

The crowning event when playing blackjack is being dealt that natural blackjack—those two cards, a 10 and an Ace. Nothing can beat you. At worst you have to push with the dealer. But that is better than losing. So what are your blackjack odds of being dealt a natural?

You are going to laugh at the answer. Players’ blackjack odds of being dealt a natural are once in every twenty one hands. Ironic, yes?

This does not mean that every twenty first hand is going to be a natural blackjack. It just means those are your average odds.

But I am going to take this blackjack odds knowledge a step further, and I am going to use it to further impress why 6-5 games should be avoided.

Okay, you are playing blackjack at 100 hands per hour. You are at the casino playing for two hours, which means that you are playing 200 hands. Based on the blackjack odds of being dealt a natural, you will have been dealt ten blackjacks. In theory at least, but just go with me.

Now comes the money and the math. Also known to me as the beauty and the beast, respectively.

Just focusing on those ten natural blackjacks we are going to compare what you would get paid in a 3-2 game to what you get in a 6-5 game.

In a 3-2 game, wagering $10, you would receive $15 for your natural blackjack. For those ten that your blackjack odds say in theory that you should have, you would receive $150 in total. Now if you were playing in a 6-5 game you would only receive $120 for those ten naturals.

In short you are handing over $30 to the casino for enjoying what was probably a single deck game.

That is how your blackjack odds of being dealt a natural factor in to your payout. Consider those blackjack odds a part of your blackjack strategy in so much as it will help to further dissuade you from playing in a 6-5 game.

What you need to consider is which do you want more? The single deck game or the $30? Me, I will take that $30, thank you.