Posts Tagged ‘Blackjack Odds’

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Built in Blackjack Boost

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Players often are not aware that the rules of blackjack give them a built boost to their odds. Seriously, it really is there. But in order to turn your blackjack odds and actually benefit from this little boost you have to not be afraid to use it.

I am talking about doubling down. This popular blackjack term gives rise to visions of daring blackjack players doubling their wagers for a one-card shot at beating the dealer. And really that is all that a double down is—a player doubling the amount of their wager and only receiving one more card. This play is often treated as the blackjack equivalent to going all-in in a game of poker after a battle of raises. However, doubling down is not as daring as a poker all-in—mostly because you are not putting all of your money on the line. But doubling your wager just feels more daring.

But because doubling down gives you the opportunity to win twice as much as you normally would in a single round of blackjack, it increases your blackjack odds. In fact, of all the plays that you can make, doubling down is the one that can increase your odds the most.

Doubling down at the right opportunities can increase your blackjack odds by 1.6%

The key is knowing when those opportunities are. And even that is not as hard as it sounds. All you need is a basic strategy chart. That chart will tell you when the best statistical times to double down are—usually with the hard hands 9, 10 and 11 against certain dealer up cards.

Making double downs at those opportune times is one of the best built in boosts a player has to their blackjack odds.

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Bad Blackjack Players—Do They Exist?

Tuesday, December 14th, 2010

I have heard tell of a creature, a creature so frightful in its ineptitude at playing blackjack that seasoned and skilled blackjack players quake at its very existence.

Okay, skilled blackjack players do not actually quake in their boots when they come into contact with an unskilled or novice blackjack player. And by ‘unskilled’ and ‘novice’ I mean a player who either is very new to blackjack or who refuses to play the game with any kind of strategy—even basic strategy.

It is one of the most perpetuated myths of blackjack, that an unskilled or novice player can have an impact on the odds of a skilled player. I am here to tell you that your odds of winning blackjack without a novice on hand are around 48%.

Now let’s say that you are playing at a blackjack table and a little upstart group of college boys on their first gambling trip to Vegas sits down. You are probably annoyed because they are probably noisy too. But you are more annoyed because you think ‘There go my odds.’ In such a scenario, or any other that features an unskilled, non-strategy using blackjack player your odds of winning are around 48%.

Wait a minute! Did I just say your odds of winning with a novice at the table are 48%, which are the same odds as if you were playing sans unskilled player?

Why, yes, I did say that your odds of winning a round of blackjack are around 48% with or without an unskilled player being present.

The truth is that it does not matter whether you are playing at a table full of skilled players or at a table full of unskilled players—it does not impact your blackjack odds. Blackjack is a one-on-one game between you and the dealer. This is why you could beat the dealer and the guy next you might lose to the dealer in the same round.

Your blackjack tip is that it only matters what you have and what the dealer has. Do not bother even worrying about the other players at the table, be they skilled or unskilled. They cannot hurt your blackjack odds. Do not fear the ineptitude of an unskilled blackjack player.

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Figuring How Blackjack Rules Effect Odds

Monday, December 6th, 2010

Math is not the most favored aspect of a casino game. I can completely understand this—math was not my favorite subject in school years ago. But thankfully the math involved with blackjack is not that hard.

Yes, I know, I said the M-word in relation to blackjack. But it is true and it the aspect of the game that players tend to ignore. But there is math in blackjack—and I am not talking about card counting or adding up your hand total—and it is not as difficult as you might think.

In fact the math that I am talking about for blackjack, it does not even really involve you having to mess with numbers in your head. All it really needs for you to do is to apply math reasoning. I am talking about blackjack rules and how they affect your blackjack odds.

Your blackjack odds are about your opportunity to make money from playing blackjack. When your odds are up it means that there are more opportunities to make a profit from the game. And likewise, when your odds are down it means you have less opportunities to make money.

So how do you figure out if the rules are good for your odds without carrying around a calculator? Because we all know that calculators are not ‘in’ this season in regards to casino attire.

Look at the house rules. Then think about whether they benefit you or not. If they benefit you, then good. If they give you less room to work your blackjack magic, then bad.

For example, players can only double down on 9s and 10s. If you are familiar with basic strategy then you know that the most opportunities to double down happen when the player has a hard 11. Obviously if you cannot double on a hard 11 it means your opportunities have been cut back, which brings your odds down.

Or if you are not familiar with basic strategy—and shame on you if you are not, and you should get familiar with it—think about it this way: doubling only on 9s and 10s means that you cannot double on anything else, and you know there are more hands in blackjack that are NOT 9s or 10s. The math reasoning there is that 9s and 10s are the minority of the hands in blackjack that you could be dealt. And since being allowed to double down on a couple of hands as opposed to the majority of hands, it stands to math reason that only being allowed to double on two hands is bad for your blackjack odds when compared to a table that let’s you double on more hands.

The point is that it does not take a calculator to figure out if a rule is good for your blackjack odds or not. You can figure if a rule is good for your blackjack odds or not just by using some math reasoning.

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6-5 Blackjack Payouts and the House Edge

Thursday, December 2nd, 2010

I hate having my hand forced. It is just a really rotten feeling, playing a variation of blackjack that is far from ideal to me.

Such is how I feel when the only blackjack tables available are ones offering a 6-5 payout on a natural blackjack. If I were playing blackjack online I could find a different online casino to play at. If I were playing in Vegas I could simply walk to another casino. But when you are trapped in an environment with no other options, like when you are on a cruise ship for example, and the only payout ratio available is that nasty 6-5 you will find yourself pressed with a choice: to play and accept a poor house edge or to not play at all.

I know, it is a tough call. On one hand you really like to play blackjack. And when stuck on a giant boat with limited gaming options, 6-5 is the only option. But a 6-5 game of blackjack is, to me at least, just not an acceptable option because of the house edge.

A 6-5 payout for a natural blackjack is 1.45%. And that is taking basic strategy into account.

In a 3-2 blackjack game the house edge, again considering basic strategy, is 0.5%. So you have a 1.4% difference that favors the house. And that is one house edge that I will not play with. You can probably guess at this point that I do not play blackjack when on a cruise ship that only offers me 6-5 blackjack payouts.

That is what I mean by a facing down a forced hand. And you thought staring down a hard 16 with a dealer’s 5 was tough.

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What are your Odds of Winning in Blackjack?

Wednesday, December 1st, 2010

Do you know? Are you sure you know?

Yes, blackjack offers some good odds when compared to other casino games. But really, what are your chances of winning?

Excluding pushes (the times that you and the dealer have the same total), you have a 48% shot of winning while the dealer has a 52% shot of beating you.

Realistically those are high odds for players. And they are much better than what you odds would be of winning roulette or slots. But, yes, the house still has the edge. Even when you are using basic strategy.

Depending on what house rules are in play, the house will start out with a 2% to 5% edge over you. But playing all of your hands—hard hands, soft hands and pairs—according to basic strategy can lower the house edge to 0.5%. And that by far the lowest house edge of any of the casino games.

But, even with basic strategy the house still has the edge. This is because more than a single deck is used in blackjack nowadays. Also because you are playing only knowing one of the dealer’s cards. Granted in a face down game the dealer will not know your hand, but you still do not know what he has in the hole, and that is where the house’s edge comes in.

The dealer knows what cards you have. Even in a face down game your cards are all turned over by the time the dealer’s turn comes. He plays last and that is where the edge comes from. And unfortunately there is no way around this portion of the house’s edge. It is like you are playing halfway blind.

And because you are playing halfway blind it is all the more important to learn and use some blackjack strategy. Even if you only use basic strategy, 0.5% is better than the 2% to 5% range that blackjack has without it. Basic strategy can always help your blackjack odds. And increasing your blackjack odds helps you to win more money.

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Multiple Hands per Round is Not Blackjack Strategy

Tuesday, November 30th, 2010

I have heard of this. Players playing two or three hands per round and calling it blackjack strategy. The way I have heard it explained to me is that playing more hands per round is good blackjack strategy that increases one’s blackjack odds of winning.

Not true, and I am going straight to the math on this one. And this is not hard math so follow along.

Your blackjack odds of winning a round, not including pushes, are 48% as opposed to the house’s 52% chance of winning. So if you play one hand you have a 52% shot of losing.

Now if you were playing two hands per round, each hand has a 48% chance of winning and a 52% chance of losing. So each hand still only has a 48% of winning. Three hands per round? Yes, each one still only has a 48% chance of winning.

Notice that the odds of winning do not increase with the number hands being played per round.

However, your potential to lose money goes up.

Blackjack, even with basic strategy, is a casino game in which the house still has the edge. Yes, card counting can even out the odds and even possibly tip the odds in favor of you. But the average blackjack player will be facing blackjack odds that lean towards the house.

The 48% chance of winning and 52% chance of losing does not change no matter how many hands you are playing per round. But playing more hands per round open up more opportunities to lose and that means money lost. Remember, your blackjack odds are based on your opportunity to make money. So if you open yourself up for more opportunities to lose money you are only hurting yourself. Stick with one hand per round.

Unless you are playing Blackjack Switch, in which case you have to play two hands, but it has a slightly different strategy.

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Blackjack Odds and Blackjack Payouts

Monday, November 29th, 2010

This morning I discussed Atlantic City Blackjack and why just its payouts alone make it a bad blackjack variation. The payouts that it carries hurt a player’s blackjack odds. But, one, a good many blackjack players do not know that payout ratios impact their blackjack odds, and, two, they do not know how those payout rations impact their odds—the how and why is not known.

So, one, yes, payout rations impact your blackjack odds.

That was simple enough. But to really understand why you should avoid blackjack games with 6-5 payouts on natural blackjacks you need to see just how payout impacts odds first.

Odds in blackjack—or any casino game for that matter—are based on the player’s opportunity to make money on the game. This is why rules that allow you more opportunities to double down increase your odds while rules that limit your opportunities, such as limiting double downs to hard 9s and hard 10s, decrease your odds.

Following that line of logic, payout ratios that increase the amount of money won off of a natural blackjack will increase your blackjack odds, while those that decrease the amount you win will decease your odds.

A 3-2 payout ratio is normal for blackjack. It is the good old payout that has been a part of the game for as long as anyone can remember.

But there are now 6-5 and 1-1 payout ratios that are becoming increasingly common. Usually these ratios are found only in blackjack variations, but there are some regular, yet single deck blackjack games with a 6-5 payout. That 6-5 payout decreases your blackjack odds by 1.39% and that 1-1 payout will drop your blackjack odds by an alarming 2.27%.

The drops in your blackjack odds come about because you make less money off of the natural blackjacks you receive. There is less opportunity to make money. And with less opportunity your blackjack odds suffer. And payout ratios are not the only way hits to your odds—insurance is also a biggie that can hurt your money making odds. This is why some variations of blackjack should be avoided simply because of the hit you take to your blackjack odds.

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Bad Beat Blackjack Progressive is Sneaky too

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

And I thought that insurance was being sneaky. It has nothing on Bad Beat Blackjack Progressive by DEQ Systems Corp. DEQ has spent the last five years creating and designing a new electronic side bet that can be built into blackjack tables.

Shall we compare the two and see just how sneaky Bad Beat Blackjack Progressive is.

First we will look at insurance. Insurance is offered when the dealer has an Ace showing, and essentially is a side bet on whether the dealer’s hole card is worth 10 or not. If the hole card is worth 10 the dealer has a natural blackjack, you would lose your original wager, but you would collect 2-1 on your insurance side bet so that you were paid an amount that is equal to the wager you lost.

There are only four Aces per deck. Let’s say that you are at a table that is using four decks, like a Vegas Strip Blackjack table. That means there are sixteen Aces out of 208 cards. On average there is a 7% chance that an Ace will show as the up card. So you only have the opportunity to take insurance sixteen times.

Now we will look at Bad Beat Blackjack Progressive.

This is a side bet that will pay the player if they have a final hand total of 20 and are beaten by the dealer with 21. The more cards that make up the dealer’s 21, the more the player receives on their side bet; but a dealer 21 made up of seven cards will payout the progressive jackpot.

Bad Beat Blackjack Progressive plays on the notion that the player will always receive something if his strong hand is beaten. Which on the surface sounds like a good idea. But there are several problems:

- It only covers a player 20, not a player who hits to 21.
- It does not cover if the dealer beats you with a natural blackjack.
- It does not cover pushes.

And perhaps the biggest problem of all is that the side bet can be made every single round. This is very bad. At least with insurance there are only certain times it is offered. But Bad Beat Blackjack Progressive puts players in the position to lose even more money every single round. The probability of you having a hand total of 20 and the dealer beating you with a multi-card hand of 21 is actually very slim.

This is one type of side bet that should be high on your list of things to avoid since you stand a better chance of losing more money each round than you do of winning a payout off of it. And it is just horrible to prey upon player feelings in order to extract more money. Sure, it is a blow when our 20’s are beaten, but that is a part of the game.

And this company, this DEQ Systems Inc., has created a way for casinos to cash in on that feeling. Because of the increased opportunity for players to lose money Bad Beat Blackjack Progressive should be avoided. There is no sense to throwing money away on almost every hand to collect on a hand here and hand there—the financial cost does not balance out unless the dealer has a seven card 21.

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What Makes Vegas Strip Blackjack Good

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

I will admit it. I am a fan of Vegas Strip Blackjack. For those of you that are just now getting into blackjack, this is not some drinking version of blackjack in which you get to take your clothes off. Clothes stay on. Vegas Strip Blackjack is actually one of the most common types of blackjack out there, and it can be found in a great many brick and mortar casinos and in the majority of online casinos.

While the majority of the rules are the same, Vegas strip does have some variations to its rules.

For starters it uses only four decks. While this is not as good as a single deck game, it is a better than the more common six and eight deck blackjack games. Playing with only four decks adds 0.06% to your blackjack odds.

Another good rule is that the dealer must stand on all 17s—including all soft 17s. This saves you from losing 0.22% from your blackjack odds, which is a fairly significant save in odds.

Players can double down on any two cards as opposed to only being able to double down only on 10s and 11s. This opens up the ability to double on some of those hard 9s and soft hands according to your basic strategy chart, and it add 0.23% to your blackjack odds.

And speaking of doubling down, players can double down after splitting; so add another 0.08% to your blackjack odds.

As for splitting, players can split up to three times for a total of four hands, which saves you a loss of 0.10%. Players can also split Aces once, but this saves an odds loss of 0.18%.

Two other rules include a split Ace with a 10 value card is not a blackjack, which is standard. And unlike 10 value cards, like a starting hand of a Queen and 10, can be split.

But one of the best rules is that the dealer will peek to see if he has blackjack if he is showing a ten card or an Ace. I know on the surface this does not seem fair, but it actually save you some money.

Imagine that the dealer has a 10 showing and you have a hard 11. Basic strategy says to double down and so you do, reaching a hand total of 18. The dealer then reveals his hole card to be an Ace; he has a natural and that trumps your doubled down hard 18 causing you to lose twice the amount you normally would have.

In a game of blackjack in which the dealer does not peek on a 10 card or an Ace it hits your blackjack odds for 0.11%.

When you add it all up, Vegas Strip Blackjack adds 0.37% to your blackjack odds and saves you from losing 0.61%. All in all, I think those are some pretty good reasons to seek out Vegas Strip Blackjack in a casino or to play it in an online casino like Go Casino. This is one variation of blackjack that I can be on board with.

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Blackjack Strategy Specifics: Your 11 vs. the Dealer’s Ace

Monday, November 22nd, 2010

How do you play your 11 if the dealer has an Ace showing? We are going to say that you are playing Vegas Strip Blackjack and the dealer has checked for a natural blackjack and does not have it. Which 11 is stronger, yours or his? And how do you play an 11 versus an Ace?

If you look at your basic strategy chart because I know you have one, you will see that you do not double down on a hard 11 against Ace despite doubling down on against all other dealer up cards. And there is a very good reason for this.

As a player you would think that your 11 is stronger than the dealer’s Ace because the dealer does not have blackjack. For starters, that does not mean that the dealer cannot win; he could still, with his hole card or through hitting, wind up with a strong soft hand. And furthermore, that Ace is a lot more flexible than your 11, and it is that flexibility that makes the dealer’s Ace stronger than your hard 11.

Even with showing an Ace you cannot expect the dealer to bust simply because of that flexibility. If need be necessary, the Ace can be reduced to a 1—the same reason why players like Aces and why Aces are the strongest cards a player can hold.

In all reality, the dealer will only bust 17% of the time. Otherwise here is the run down on hands of 17 or more and the dealer’s chances of winding up with one of those hands:

A hand of 17 or more: 83%
A hand of 18 or more: 65%
A hand of 19 or more: 46%
A hand of 20 or more: 27%
A hand of 21: 8%
Busting: 17%

From the start of the round the dealer has the upper hand. This is all because that Ace gives him more room to wiggle. And because he has more Flexibility, you need to keep doubling down against an Ace out of your blackjack strategy.

Doubling down will actually hurt your odds here because the dealer has the slightly stronger hand. Blackjack strategy is meant to increase your odds in opportune moments, and is meant to preserve your wager as best possible if you do not have the upper hand. This is one of those non-upper hand times and your blackjack strategy needs to reflect that. So now doubling down.

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