Posts Tagged ‘Blackjack betting strategy’
Thursday, July 22nd, 2010
Throughout yesterday we followed two blackjack players—Player A and Player B—through a few rounds at the blackjack table. Or it could be both of them playing blackjack online. Whether they are playing blackjack online or in a casino does not matter since the effect of progressive betting is the same no matter where you play.
After all, you still stand to win around 42% of the time and lose the other 58% regardless of whether you prefer to sit at a blackjack table or play online.
And that brings us to the conclusion of our tortoise and the hare version of blackjack and progressive betting.
We learned that in Part I that Player A and Player B both won four rounds, leaving Player A with a gain of $40 and Player B with a gain of $100. This shows that a progressive betting system can be profitable in blackjack.
However.
In Part II we learned, with a win-loss-win-loss streak that Player A broke even; he won $20 and lost $20 in those four rounds. But Player B, because of the progressions of his betting system, wound up with a net loss of $20.
Looking at Player B we see that while his progressive betting system pulls in money on a winning streak, he stands to lose what he gains and then some if he does not hit a winning streak.
And playing without a winning streak is a more realistic approach to blackjack considering that, like I said above, you stand to lose around 58% of the time in blackjack. Knowing that you stand a greater chance of losing, even if you are using basic strategy, means that your chances of hitting a winning streak are not high. And without several winning streaks and not a lot of losing, the profitability from using a progressive betting system will not payout in the long run.
While it will take longer and might not be as thrilling, flat betting is the safer and more enduring way to earn a profit in blackjack, your best odds at making money in other words. Which makes Player B our tortoise and Player A, with his snazzy betting system, the hare of blackjack.
Tags: Basic Strategy, Blackjack, Blackjack basic strategy, Blackjack betting strategy, Blackjack Betting System, Blackjack Odds, Blackjack Payout, Blackjack strategy, Blackjack Tips., How to Bet in Blackjack, How to play Blackjack, Online Blackjack, play Blackjack, Progressive Betting System
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Wednesday, July 21st, 2010
Where did we leave our players in our tale of progressive betting for blackjack strategy?
We left our Player A and Player B—our tortoise and hare—at the blackjack table. Both players had each won four rounds. Player A had won $40 as a result, while Player B had won $100 as a result of his progressive betting.
Clearly Player B is feeling quite relaxed and enjoying his blackjack playing. And he is probably feeling pretty confident that his progressive betting strategy will put him ahead in blackjack—unlike poor Player A who is flat betting.
See how it is reminiscent of the Tortoise and the Hare?
With the $40 compared to the $100, progressive betting has the edge. Not unlike the hare’s edge over the tortoise.
Now we are going to take our players for a little up and down playing. The next four rounds go like this: win, loss, win, loss. For Player A, he will be wagering $10 each time. Player B’s wagers will look like this: $10, win and increase to $20, lose and drop back to $10, win and increase to $20, and lose.
When you break the math down you can see that Player A will break even. He will have won $20 and lost $20 overall, and his bankroll be exactly where he started.
But Player B, well that is a different story. He won $10 in the first round, then increased his wager to $20 and lost. He then dropped back down to $10 and won. So he then increases his blackjack wager back up to $20, but he loses that round too. So in rounds one and three he won $20, but in rounds two and four he lost $40, which gives us a net loss of $20.
This is the moment when the hare realizes that he has goofed off far too long in the race and that the tortoise is ahead him, heading for the finish line.
As for you, you are beginning to see the down side of using a progressive betting system as a part of your blackjack strategy. But how will the story end for Player A and Player B? Check back tomorrow to find out!
Tags: Blackjack, Blackjack betting strategy, Blackjack Betting System, Blackjack Odds, Blackjack Payout, Blackjack player, Blackjack strategy, Blackjack Tips., How to Bet in Blackjack, Online Blackjack, play Blackjack, Progressive Betting System
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Wednesday, July 21st, 2010
It is not uncommon to see players using a progressive betting strategy when at the blackjack tables. They seem content with their system but I am not sure they are aware that a progressive betting system just does not pay off in the long run in blackjack. And how you bet is a big part of your blackjack strategy since your aim in blackjack is to make money.
Like usual let’s take a look at an example and compare flat betting in a game of blackjack to using a betting system in the same game of blackjack.
In this example players A and B are playing at a $10 minimum table and both start out betting $10. Player A is our flat bettor and player B is our progressive bettor.
Both players have played four rounds of blackjack. This could be online blackjack or blackjack in a brick and mortar casino. It does not matter where it is being played considering the effect of both bettering strategies will work the same in both types of blackjack.
In four rounds player A has wagered and won, brining in a total of $40. Player B has also won all four rounds but because he has wagered $10, $20, $30 and then $40, he has won $100.
In this instance the point goes to the player B and his progressive betting system.
This example shows us why players tend to resort to progressive betting systems when playing blackjack. They see it as an easy way to win money and make a profit when playing blackjack. Not to mention faster.
Do you recall the tale of the tortoise and the hare? The hare assumed that because he was the naturally faster animal he would win the race; he goofed off and played around with confidence. He figured he had the better method.
Check back and find out what happened to player B and his progressive blackjack betting system, and which player is the hare and which is the tortoise when it comes to blackjack.
Tags: Blackjack, Blackjack betting strategy, Blackjack Betting System, Blackjack Odds, Blackjack Payout, Blackjack strategy, Blackjack Tips., How to Bet in Blackjack, Online Blackjack, play Blackjack, Progressive Betting System
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Tuesday, July 20th, 2010
Yesterday I began talking about reducing your losses per hour in blackjack. While it is possible to reduce your losses per hour in online blackjack by slowing down your rate of play, some of the other ways of reducing losses are limited to playing blackjack in a brick and mortar casino.
One of those ways was discussed yesterday: making bets on another player’s hand. Between playing at a full table (same as slowing down your rate of play in online blackjack) and making wagers on another player’s hand, you can reduce your average loss per hour of $7 down to around $3.
But for blackjack players who are also card counters, they can reduce their losses per hour a little more.
This might sound a little backwards but bear with me. If you are playing at a table that has had a few hands of high cards leave the table. Save your spot, leave and then go play at another table. The reason for this is that, after a few rounds of high cards, you can expect that the run will be coming to an end. And you do not want to be making larger wagers when the run ends and the low cards start running. Low cards favor the dealer and you stand to lose more then.
On the other hand if the cards run low for several hands, say you see more than eight low end cards in a row and passing out of play, it is then time to start upping your wagers again.
This bit of blackjack strategy takes more time to work with and become good at but it can pay off in the end in reducing your losses per hour in blackjack from the average of $7 down to around $1. These are the best odds for a blackjack player who is trying to reduce their losses per hour.
Remember—play at a full table, make a few bets on another blackjack player’s hand and balance when to play at a blackjack table and when to bow out.
Tags: Blackjack, Blackjack betting strategy, Blackjack Odds, Blackjack player, Blackjack strategy, Blackjack Tips., Casinos, Game of Skill, How to Bet in Blackjack, How to play Blackjack, play Blackjack
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Monday, July 19th, 2010
In blackjack—be it online blackjack or casino blackjack—the point is to make money. That is where your blackjack odds come from, your opportunities to make money in blackjack.
So logically it stands to follow that the more you lose per hour the les opportunity you have and the more your odds decrease. So it follows that if you can cut down your losses per hour you can in turn increase your odds a bit.
So what can you do to reduce your losses per hour?
For starters play at a full table, or as full of a table as you can find. A full table, meaning seven players, will average around 55 hands per hour, which comes to around $7 lost per hour. If you were to play one-on-one with the dealer you would be looking at 220 hands per hour with about a loss of $28 per hour. So knock of the seemingly macho one-on-one stuff and pull up to a full table.
Obviously a full table is not an option when it comes to online blackjack. When playing blackjack online it is just you and the dealer. In this case you would simply slow down your rate of play. Play a round and go get a drink, check your email, go to the bathroom—something! The whole point is to not play as many hands in an hour.
The less hands you play per hour the less opportunities you have to lose money. Realistically, since the house has the edge even with basic strategy, there are more opportunities to lose money—which is why you want to slow your rate of play down.
Another little trick you can use if you are playing blackjack in a casino is to bet on another player’s hand.
If you know that the guy next to needs to double down on his hand according to basic strategy but he is hesitating, cover the extra money for him. This way if he wins you will win a part of his winnings, even if your hand loses. In this way you can keep from losing as much money on a hand, or even make a little extra.
If in an hour you can work in at least two wagers on another guy’s hand for $30 each, you can make back around $4. I know, it is not a lot, but it is better than nothing; and look at this math: Let’s say you are playing at a full table (and you should be by now) you are losing around $7 per hour. But with wagering on other player’s hand you can make back $4, well your losses per hour are now down to $3 per hour instead of $7.
There is another way of reducing your losses in blackjack, but it is going to have to wait until next time.
Tags: Basic Strategy, Blackjack, Blackjack basic strategy, Blackjack betting strategy, Blackjack Odds, Blackjack strategy, Blackjack Tips., Game of Skill, How to Bet in Blackjack, How to play Blackjack, Online Blackjack, play Blackjack
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Friday, July 16th, 2010
When it comes to odds in casino games, many are actually quite accurate, or true. I know, surprising considering how the casino like to take money. However, at least in most games the odds are true. One of the exceptions though is an insurance bet in blackjack.
First off, what are true odds?
True odds are quite simple. Odds are true when they are even with the payout. Meaning the payout has to be the same as the odds of landing that payout. Take roulette for example. In a game of roulette there are thirty six numbers. If you were to make a wager on one of those numbers and won that round you would receive a 36-1 payout. And that matches the odds of landing one number, which is naturally thirty six to one.
Now let’s take a look at insurance in blackjack.
If you were to win an insurance wager you would receive a 2-1 payout. However true odds on insurance are not two to one.
As an example we are going to assume that you are not holding any ten value cards; obviously the dealer has an Ace and you do not know what his other card is. We are going to look a single deck game to make the math easier to see.
In a single deck game there are sixteen ten value cards, which means that there are thirty three cards that have other values. This means that there is a 33-16 chance of the dealer having a card worth 10 for his hole card. Reduce 33-16 and you have 2.0625 to 1.
And that means that you should be paid $2.06 for every $1 of your insurance bet. On a $10 insurance bet you should be paid a total of $20.63. Instead you receive $20. Since you do not receive $20.63 the odds on an insurance bet are not fair, which further makes insurance a bad bet in blackjack.
Oh, and the amount that you should be paid goes up the larger your insurance wager is. So the larger your insurance bet is in blackjack, the more unbalanced the odds are.
Tags: Blackjack, Blackjack betting strategy, Blackjack Odds, Blackjack Payout, Blackjack Rules, Blackjack strategy, Blackjack Tips., Blackjack Variations, Casino Games, Casinos, How to Bet in Blackjack, How to play Blackjack, Insurance, Online Blackjack, play Blackjack
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Thursday, July 15th, 2010
One of the fun things about playing blackjack in a brick and mortar casino is the free drinks. You will see waitresses going from table to table bringing drinks to players.
The casino’s surface intent of these free drinks is to make your playing experience all the more enjoyable with drinks brought right to you so that you do not have to leave your game, and on top of that your drinks are free! This would be one of the advantages blackjack in a brick and mortar casino has over online blackjack…if you like to drink while playing.
But the real reason that casinos like to offer their players free drinks is in hopes that players will become somewhat inebriated, but not fully intoxicated. For the most part when players become inebriated they lose their focus and do not usually stick with their blackjack strategies, tossing aside their basic strategy charts, and making foolish plays or wagers. Casinos make money here.
But they do not want players to be drunk as it ruins the experience for other players. That, and there is the possibility that a player will behave very badly.
I read this morning about a man who was playing blackjack at one of the Meadows’ new blackjack tables. Security was going table to table around 2:30 am telling the players ‘Last Call’ when this man became very angry and aggressive. He wound up being tasered by a state trooper who was called in and hauled off to jail. Not how you want to end a night of blackjack.
Not only should you want to avoid being tasered, your main reason for watching how many of those free drinks you have has more to do with your playing and your blackjack strategy.
Remember that part where I mentioned that getting drunk at the blackjack tables will cause players to play recklessly, and that casinos like when this happens? You do not want to play recklessly because it will cause you to lose your money faster. You might as well hand it over to the cashier and be done with it if you want to be drunk and throw your money away.
Blackjack offers players the chance to make money. Getting tipsy and reckless with your playing will not only reduce your chances of making money, it will increase your chances of paying out through your nose.
Tags: Basic Strategy, Blackjack, Blackjack basic strategy, Blackjack betting strategy, Blackjack Odds, Blackjack player, Blackjack strategy, Blackjack Tips., Casino Games, Casinos, Game of Skill, How to play Blackjack, Meadows, play Blackjack
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Wednesday, July 14th, 2010
Insurance has an alias, did you know that?
I am willing to bet that you are a smart blackjack player, be you an online blackjack player or one who plays in a brick and mortar casino. You most likely know what the alias of Insurance is.
Well this deceptive little choice that gives edge to the house also goes by the name of Even Money. And you will only be offered a shot at even money when you have been dealt a natural blackjack and the dealer has an Ace showing.
And that is exactly how the dealer will put it to you, making even money sound like something special that you have earned for being dealt a blackjack.
The truth of the matter is that even money does not earn you anything since you are actually giving part of your odds over to the house if you accept.
You know you are offered insurance when the dealer has an Ace showing, but with a natural blackjack you really do not need to insure it. So the casinos thought they would be smart and offer players the same thing with a different name. Hence even money.
Even money is when you receive a 1-1 payout. And that is exactly what you get if you accept even money. They want to scare you into taking a 1-1 payout so that there will be no risk to the house to pay you a 3-2 payout should the dealer not have a natural blackjack.
And that is the trouble with even money—players accept a lower payout and reduce their own blackjack odds when the dealer may not even have a blackjack. He is showing an Ace while you have one of the ten value cards he needs in his hand. That is already one shot at a blackjack that he does not have.
Just because the dealer is showing an Ace does not mean he has a blackjack. That is what you have to remember. Being scared and accepting even money only hurts you in the long run. Remember your blackjack odds increase as your opportunities to make money increase; and they decrease when your opportunities decrease.
So if you accept a payout that reduces your chance of making money, you are reducing you blackjack odds as well.
The point is to know what even money is and what it does to your odds so that you know why to decline even money. Even if the dealer has blackjack too you will only have to push, which is not as bad for you odds. Do not be afraid of a dealer’s Ace. Just decline even money and hold out—you just might get that 3-2 payout.
Tags: Blackjack, Blackjack betting strategy, Blackjack Odds, Blackjack Payout, Blackjack Rules, Blackjack Tips., Even Money, How to play Blackjack, Insurance, Online Blackjack, play Blackjack
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Monday, July 12th, 2010
While basic strategy offers players a wonderful, easy and legal way to lower the house edge it only takes you so far. As far as 0.5% still being in the house’s favor. And while that house edge is not as great at the 8% to 12% that players are up against at a slots machine, the casino is accepting for two reasons:
1. Not every single blackjack player will play according to basic strategy, nor will they play every hand according to it, deviating and thus keeping the house edge above 0.5%.
2. And the house still has the edge. As long as they have some kind of an edge they are a happy casino.
But then along comes those wily card counting blackjack players.
Casinos very much do not like card counting blackjack players. This is more about money than anything. On the surface card counting evens out the house edge and can even, for the skilled card counter, tip the edge in favor of the player.
If these card counting blackjack players were playing for fun or for fake money the casino would not care at all if the house edge slipped in favor of the player. But when money is involved, well that is another story.
When the house edge is in favor of the house, they stand a greater chance of making money off of the players. But when the edge goes to the player, the casino winds up paying more money to the player—something that they do not want to do on a regular basis. A slots jackpot here, and an honest 3-2 payout on a high-end wager to a non-card counting player, sure they are okay with. But a player who is taking regular advantage, no.
That is why if you are going to be a regular card counting blackjack player there is another skill you need to acquire: appearing that you are not counting cards.
Pit bosses, when they suspect that a player is counting cards or that something funny is going on, will come over to the table and strike up conversation with players. And often players will talk with the other players at the table or even with the dealer.
It is the player who with the bets going form $5 up to $50 suddenly that is not talking that will catch their attention. So the other skill you need to teach yourself to go hand-in-hand with card counting is the ability to keep an eye on the cards, keep your count and still interact with the other players, the dealer and even the pit boss if he stops by.
The point here is to be social and to appear that you are not counting cards when you really are. If you can interact with the others while playing blackjack the casino staff will not think that your mind is focused on counting. But then they assume that card counting blackjack players are not smart enough to do two things at once.
Tags: Blackjack, Blackjack betting strategy, Blackjack Odds, Blackjack Payout, Blackjack player, Blackjack Tips., Card counting, Casino Games, Casinos, Game of Skill, House Edge, How to Bet in Blackjack, How to play Blackjack, play Blackjack
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Wednesday, July 7th, 2010
Do you know what the best play in blackjack to make when you have a hard 15 or hard 16 versus a dealer’s 9, 10 or Ace? The answer might not be exactly what you think it is.
The instances in a game of blackjack that I am talking about are when you have a hard 15 versus a dealer’s 10 or a hard 16 against a dealer’s 9, 10 or Ace by the way.
Your first answer would be to stand. And in some blackjack games that would be the best statistical play to make. But in other blackjack games there is a better statistical play and it comes in two varieties: late and early surrender.
Late surrender is the more common of the two, but that is because it only hits the house edge for 0.08%. When it comes to late surrender, it is a play in which the player gives up half of his wager to exit the round only after the dealer has checked for blackjack. Players must decide to make a late surrender before they make any other plays; once a player decides to hit or stand the option to make a late surrender is gone.
The other type of surrender is early surrender. This differs from late surrender in that in an early surrender the player can give up half of their wager before the dealer checks for blackjack. Early surrender allows the player to get out of that particular round even if the dealer does have a natural blackjack. And because that aspect early surrender lowers the house edge by 0.6%. And that 0.6% hit is why early surrender is seen less often in blackjack games.
But surrender should only be used in blackjack if you have a hard 15 against a dealer’s 10 or a hard 16 against a dealer’s 9, 10 or Ace. Those are the four best times to surrender since a blackjack player’s chances of winning are the lowest then.
If you can find a game that allows for late surrender go for it, and if you can find a game of blackjack that allows for early surrender—even better!
Tags: Blackjack, Blackjack betting strategy, Blackjack Odds, Blackjack Rules, Blackjack strategy, Blackjack Tips., Early Surrender, Hard Hand Strategy, Hard Hands, Late Surrender, Online Blackjack, Surrender, Surrender Strategy
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